Single Family Home Prices Remain Stable Year-Over-Year
Rates Decline Again in April
For Buyers
March was an eventful month as rates spiked from 5.99% to 6.64% per Mortgage News Daily. The spike was a direct response to uncertainty over the Iran war and its affect on U.S. inflation. Once the unemployment report was released showing an improvement from 4.4% to 4.3%, rates began drifting back down. By the time the CPI inflation was released at 3.3%, up from 2.4%, it had already been priced into the rates so there was little effect. As of mid-April, rates were back to 6.3% and trending down.
The effect of the rate disruption was a decline in buyer contract activity, in March they were up 10% and in April up just
1%. Contracts could begin to return as rates fall below 6.25%. The lesson buyers have learned over the past 3 years of volatile mortgage rates is patience. Rates have a recent history of knee-jerk spikes in times of unexpected uncertainty (i.e. tariffs, trade through the Strait of Hormuz), and declines after the shock wears off.
The increase in supply seen in January and February stalled in March and now in April as well. In February supply was up 9% over last year. In March supply was only up 4.8% and in April it is barely up 0.2% thus far. With both contract and listing activity stalled, they have cancelled each other out, thus maintaining the status quo for home prices.
While the conflict with Iran is not settled, the markets are responding as if they expect it to be a short-term influence on inflation. If that proves to be true, then there will be little impact on home values as they typically take 3-6 months to respond to a prolonged disturbance in the force. Since September 2022, the median mortgage rate is 6.89%. This puts the current 6.3% mortgage rate well on the low side of the last 3.5 years.
For Sellers
Sellers have the least advantage in the condominium market under $300K as supply is up 20% over last year and contracts in escrow up only 13%. April sold prices are down 9.5% from last year in this segment with the median size sold at 1,048sqft, historically prices for this segment are similar to where they were 5 years ago around May 2021. Conversely, Single family homes between 1,200-2,400sqft have shown the most stability in prices over the past 3 years with minimal fluctuation.
The median sized single family home sold in Greater Phoenix this year is 2,003sqft, which is 318sqft bigger than 2001’s median of 1,685sqft, 25 years ago. Typical home sizes vary based on city, which is reflected in their median sales prices. For example the 2026 median sized home sold in the city of Phoenix is 1,798sqft and the median price is $482K. Compare that to a newer cities like Chandler where the median size is 2,061sqft at $558K and Queen Creek at 2,659sqft and $688K. Below are the median sales prices by year for the following single family size ranges in Greater Phoenix. They show that while the Valley has endured a buyer’s market since November 2024, price trends are within 1% of last year’s prices for the majority of common-sized homes:
Commentary written by Tina Tamboer, Senior Housing Analyst with The Cromford Report
©2026 Cromford Associates LLC and Tamboer Consulting LLC
Misha’s observations:
Four months into 2026 and the Spring market is still in full swing. Our team has been especially busy with new listings, which aligns with broader market trends. Listing activity was up year-over-year from January through March, with only a slight slowdown in April – a fairly typical pattern as our busiest listing season usually extends into early summer. The biggest shift we’re seeing is on the buyer side. Buyer inquiries and consultations are still happening, just at a slower pace than in previous Spring markets. Interestingly, activity picked up noticeably whenever rates dipped into the high 5% to low 6% range, reinforcing that many buyers are still waiting for more favorable affordability conditions before making a move.
For buyers, there are still excellent opportunities to negotiate price, repairs, and seller concessions – especially on homes that have been sitting on the market for 90 days or longer. While it’s certainly not the market of 2022, sellers are often willing to work with buyers to get deals done. Some of the best opportunities continue to be homes with poor marketing, limited information, or cosmetic challenges, where buyer competition tends to be lower. Buyers willing to renovate or improve a home over time are often finding the strongest value. On the other hand, turnkey homes remain in demand and command stronger pricing with less room for negotiation. In many cases, buyers are better served negotiating concessions to buy down their interest rate rather than focusing solely on price reductions. That said, truly exceptional homes are still attracting multiple offers, with buyers competing through cleaner terms, flexibility, and stronger overall offers rather than dramatically overbidding.
On the listing side, preparation matters more than ever. Proper pricing, thoughtful presentation, and patience are key in today’s market. Buyers are highly informed and quick to recognize when a home is overpriced, especially as price appreciation has stabilized. Pre-inspections, polished curb appeal, organized spaces, and complete disclosures all help sellers stand out and avoid unnecessary hurdles during escrow. We are also seeing more unrepresented buyers attempting to navigate transactions directly with listing agents – a growing trend in the post-NAR settlement landscape. While that can work in certain situations, having experienced representation on either side of the transaction remains incredibly valuable. As average days on market continue to rise, sellers should be prepared for longer marketing times and remain patient throughout the process.
Who you work with matters. Experience, preparation, and strong negotiation skills can make all the difference in today’s evolving market. Whether you’re buying, selling, or simply exploring your options, we’re here to help guide you through it. To start your buying or selling journey, get in touch!